BY ISABEL EVERETT
University of Newcastle researchers have published new modelling which provides early warnings about the number of tropical cyclones expected to hit Australia during the next cyclone season.
The data published on Wednesday in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, is predicting average to above average tropical cyclone numbers for Australia, including on the East Coast, this season (November 2020 – April 2021).
There is a 94% chance that La Niña conditions will develop before the start of the tropical cyclone season which typically results in more of the extreme weather systems developing.
Developed by Climate Scientist Dr Andrew Magee from the Centre for Water, Climate and Land at the University of Newcastle, the new model enables government, emergency services, financial services, the insurance industry, the tourism sector, natural resource industries and all people living in tropical cyclone impacted regions to be better prepared in the months before the start of the tropical cyclone season.
"Our new model looks to predict the number of tropical cyclones a couple of months before the start of the Australian season," Dr Magee says.
"Hopefully the outlook will be adopted by State and Local Governments, as well as individuals."
However he says the advice and guidance produced by the outlook is a research driven product, and does not, and should not replace the advice provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
The outlook is freely available on the tcoutlook.com website, and is updated every month.
Expected Tropical Cyclone Count for 2020/21 Season
