The Hunter Research Foundation held its Upper Hunter Economic breakfast this morning industry professionals discussed the regions economic indicators.
Economic indicators are used to analyse the economic performance of a region in order to indicate the direction of that economy.
According to the new analysis, the Upper Hunter business and household expectations for the local economy continued to decline from their 2017 high.
The lead economist for the Hunter Research Foundation Dr Anthea Bill said the Upper Hunter is in Sync with the Hunter region more broadly as well as the rest of the nation.
"The Upper Hunter region and the Hunter together, are showing some more robust signs, particularly in terms of their housing markets. We are seeing some declines but only moderately.
"At the moment when we have a look at the Upper Hunter, housing market and house prices declined by three per cent overall, but when we unpack that, we can see most of those declines were driven by the Upper Hunter Shire. Muswellbrook and Singleton actually had a two per cent rebound and Singleton had particularly strong growth over the year of seven per cent in its house prices.
"There was less softening in the consumer sector for both the Hunter and the Upper Hunter, while business measures are kind of tracking in sync in some ways with the nation. We have had a bit of a softening in the business sector. Some slowing of the moment that was seen in 2017-18.
"I think political uncertainty at a national level is playing in. There has been some downgrading of global forecasts and there might be a little bit extra impact in the region around some softening in the thermal coal price that we will be watching for future economic indicators," Dr Bill said.
The key economic indicators for the Upper Hunter are:
- Employment: fell despite growth in September 2018. The Unemployment rate is steady, just above the state but below the broader Hunter region.
- Median house prices: across the Upper Hunter fell by 3 per cent. There was a significant decline in the Upper Hunter Local Government Area, but growth in Singleton and Muswellbrook.
- Business performance and confidence: soften further from a recovery in late 2017, when the region was at its peak but remains above long-term averages.
- Household spending: past spending has stayed relatively steady while future household finances showed a decline.
- Business and household confidence: the region's economy has softened again, but businesses and households remain optimistic, and confidence is well above 2013-15 lows.
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| Economic indicators for the Upper Hunter. |
